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Poker Breakdown: Tony G is Back! And WHAT THE HELL is He Doing?

T

thepokerguys

Tony G. gets caught up in one of the biggest cash game hands of the year against billionaire Paul Phua. The guys break it down. Click here to get How Can He Fold? Incredible Poker Hands Broken Down Decision By Decision: www.thepokerguys.net
166.125 SEREY
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I think you really don't get Tony's plan for this game. His plan, jugding from other hands in the session like the last hand of the session with K9 (which imo is a pure stroke of genius), was to be in a lot of pots with the whales and seemingly give a lot of action (which the whales love and get you invited to other games), whereas against the GTO bots, he would take really unconventional lines also for usually thin value. And his gameplan worked if I remember correctly, he was the biggest winner in the session. Now to the hand itself: against the GTO bots, the preflop call is not great, but with the ante in play and the 3x open, I'm almost sure that a solver would advocate a mixed strategy which involves at least a decent amount of calls. K9o is not doing too badly against Phua's button opening range that you'd assume is 50-60% of hands at least. Yes you let in Haxton in the BB, which is not great, but you will see a flop and be perceived as giving action, which sets up nicely for the rest of the session. So while his call isn't great, it isn't absolutely terrible either considering who we are facing and how deep stacks are Now the flop: the donk accomplishes two things. You almost certainly get rid of Haxton (if he calls, you are done with your hand), so you're HU vs the fish. Secondly, Phua is the kind of guy that will almost never fold here. He will call all of his marginal value and go for some really questionnable bluffs (Q8 with a backdoor flush draw can easily be played as a call in position) When Phua raises, he can't fold for that very reason, but of course he'd prefer for it to go call. Turn makes sense to check in flow. River is clearly a value bet vs a fish like Phua, especially if we consider that he can have a lot of Qx or 7x hand after he checks the turn. I agree he could fold the river though, but it is probably still close against someone like Phua. All in all, every decision in the hand is purely exploitative against a player with a lot of money and limited poker skills and should be analysed only from that viewpoint. If Phua does not hit the 8, Tony wins a 480k pot (40k preflop, 140k on the flop, 200k on the river) with a marginal made hand. Is it risky: yes, is bad poker: absolutely not

0.000 SEREY
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