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Poker Breakdown: Can He Call Off His Life Against the Strange Line?

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thepokerguys

Heads up for a WPT title, and one player is put in a terrible spot by a bad runout. The guys break it down. Click here to get How Can He Fold? Incredible Poker Hands Broken Down Decision By Decision: www.thepokerguys.net
209.050 SEREY
6 votes

Comments

Guo just calling on the flop can make some sense, as a trap if Greg is overly bluffy but also just in general an occasional play to balance your just-call range in these spots, which are likely to be hands like gutshots that cannot call a second barrell (as strong draws are inclined to checkraise the flop). Then the turn is bad for Greg to barrell, as if he has a draw Guo is more likely to have at least an eight and not fold the turn as there are so many draws available you just have to call your pairs. That explains the turn lead: as Guo, we no longer hope to get any value from bluffs anyway, so might as well hope that our opponent has a bluffcatching hand, or a draw strong enough to continue calling. Now from Greg's perspective, facing the turn lead can look pretty polarizing: if Guo has a draw here, Q high is actually good. The problem is that he blocks some of the draws (7T, QT), but not the hearts, and hearts that beat Q high are likely to check-call instead of lead. So Q high esentially beats the draws. Therefore his plan is two-fold: his hand is good some of the time, and also, being in position, he can decide to bluff some runouts if checked to, turn his bluffcatcher into a bluff. Which he does quite sensibly on an A, and Guo has of course the best hand to call with as he blocks none of the draws and much of the value. I mean, clearly the Q7 of diamonds is not an ideal candidate to float on the turn, but the hand is not as whacky as it may initially seem.

106.382 SEREY
2 votes

Good analysis, but I believe that the flop x/c with top 2 is very defensible and arguably optimal when ranges are so wide hu and it's so easy to get it in at this SPR. It functions much like a set here.

92.245 SEREY
2 votes

Guo kind of eliminates 98 from his range when he flats on the flop. When he leads turn, it kinda looks like a stop n go play, so really Guo can have a pretty wide range, not just 98 and 3X. He can be protecting 9X, 8X, and that's kinda what it looks like most of the time. So that means there's a lot of scary rivers. Any heart, and any over card, and it's really hard for 9X or 8X to call a jam.

69.384 SEREY
1 vote