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Poker Breakdown: Adrian Mateos with a SUPER Tough Decision in a High Roller

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thepokerguys

Adrian Mateos is one of the best players in the world. He turned a monster, but the river wasn't so great. What should he do now that his elite opponent (Rainer Kempe) has moved all in? Click here to get How Can He Fold? Incredible Poker Hands Broken Down Decision By Decision: www.thepokerguys.net
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i'd guess the solver wants mateos to call the river bet because kempe CAN (and should) still have his draws after calling a turn raise to that size (he needs ~26% equity, and with a ~70% pot back on the river vs a strong, polarized cr range, his implieds should be quite good. as for what ranier is aiming for with his river bet, it really depends on what he thinks mateos turn CR range looks like. mateos has mandatory (imo) turn CR semibluffs with his good no showdown equity draws (OESD, over cards + gutter, most non nut flush draws), but he can effectively balance those with just his really strong hands (2 pair+). that's probably how i'd construct here, calling with all my 1 pair hands and my straights. if that's mateos range, ranier's river bet is solely for value, targeting counterfeited 2 pair hands exclusively. BUT there are enough draws out there on the turn that mateos may also be CR some mergey top pair hands, which ranier might be able to bluff on the river as both of those seem quite possible i'm guessing ranier thinks his river bet is profitable because it's drawing some value from both sides, targeting a clear ~ 21 combos for value, and a less clear number of mergey tpmk combos as a bluff.

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