SplitSuit breaks it down through the lens of an interesting hand from Alex's $1/$2 home game. Most players in this game overvalue their hands, which complicates things when he flops an big gutshot in a 5-way pot. Split focuses on 3 major things:
https://www.splitsuit.com/poker-gutshot-strategy
1. The preflop isolation size is too small
2. The flop CB, while standard in a HU pot, is not great in such a MW spot
3. The turn check/shove is likely worse than just check/calling
Comments
Lead shove on the turn would be more interesting and would probably generate more folds. Even if you get called, you have outs. And if you brick, then you have a solid line with which you can exploit your opponents later on in the game. Hehe. but yeah this wouldn't be a spot to cbet the flop. Even heads up I would go for a check on the flop OOP. It's a perfect spot to do that because it's relatively dry. You block some of the straight draws. Checking will protect your range when you miss. Checking the flop accomplishes so much both in this particular hand and for your entire game in general.
I like the idea of the big raise on the turn after the flop c-bet; just not at these stakes; How is J9o ever good in this spot? these players just call too much so be very selective with which player type that you choose to bluff; some will squirm and go deep into the tank and others with just say fuck it and not even think about it all ; but I agree about not c-betting into so many players, reaaally hard for all those players to miss that board
I agree. J9 shouldn't be good that often but in a home game like this you really have to discount the fold equity as it's often non-existent lol. Better checking and maybe check calling n getting all in when hit big straight as obvious as that sounds.