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Some poker math is simple, but other times it can be downright scary. In this video, SplitSuit does some advanced math on a hand previously explored on this channel. In this hand, Alex decides to check-shove the turn with overs and a gutshot. But proofing the all-in is only half the battle since you still need to see how that compares to the EV of ........
Comments
....... calling (and even folding).
SplitSuit created a brand-new spreadsheet just for this video, along with 4 different "runs" to explore. Each run looks at a different assumption set, ranging from wide bets & tight calls to regular checking & minimal fold equity. This video focuses on the first run (wide range & no fork), and the complete PRO video continues looking at all of them, comparing them side-by-side, and discussing which assumption set is likely right.
Thanks again to Alex for sending this hand in! If YOU have an interesting hand to discuss, be sure to send it in today at: https://www.splitsuit.com/ask
*RELATED LINKS*
The original AQ video
Hand Reading Callers
Download The Right Spreadsheet
I like your mention of the fork. Do you find it more difficult to play against players that bet the same amount regardless or those that vary their bet size. Personally I find it tough to balance the raise amount, especially in a cash game so I am more likely to raise the same amount all the time.
Story wise, from the button's perspective, what are you raising with preflop, betting the flop into a crowd of people, and check raising the turn. It seems like in practice your range consists of all the flopped and turned sets and maybe two pair with j10 suited and AJ suited and off suit for top pair top kicker and over pairs. But would you check raise with top pair top kicker? How about over pairs? I feel like over pairs would just keep betting, as well as some sets and two pairs. Curious what hero's range is combo wise and if based on combos villain should call or fold top pair weak kicker like j9.
The math for full payoff in the excel is incorrect. It shows in the top part (123 * 0.6) + (123+112*0.4) when it should read (123 * 0.6) + (123+112)*0.4 since the assumption is that in 40% of the time you win on top of the 123 that's already in there also 112 for the rest of the money. So either 123 + 0.4 * 112 or 123*0.6 + (123+112)*0.4 [same result for both formulations of course)