Weekly Poker Hand #306: In this wild hand from a loose, live cash game, we see a very multiway pot. Splashing around may be fun, but you're pretty much just lighting money on fire with hands that are going to be dominated!
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Comments
I think Cole can credibly rep a full house by 3 betting the river and while he has obviously misplayed the hand or earlier streets should pull the trigger here once he finds himself in this spot. If you think about how this hand plays he should raise the flop a large majority of the time with J9s, 99, 33 (questionable if he has 33 pre but you get the point) since while the pot is super multi-way and someone COULD have a flush, you simply cannot call $5 and allow everyone to draw so cheaply since so many hands have equity. Once everyone calls, it is at least reasonable to check the turn (although I would probably keep betting) since someone could have a flush. On the river, what pure bluffs do we have betting into 5 players IMO we are almost always value betting up front and get min raised. If I was Cole, I would think that Czyz very likely is thinly value raising given the very small sizing. Since we have no pure bluffs we need to pick some bluffs that are at the bottom or our value range with good blocker properties. Here we have the worst jack we could possible have with good blockers (block J9s). Who knows if jamming would work here, but if I'm Czyz with J10 (or a small flush etc) I am hating life I think he should fold. When is the last time you've seen anyone 3b the river as a bluff, so if anything we should be looking for bluffs exploitatively.
The problem here is that I doubt JT would fold. Everyone at this table is such a huge fish and fish will not fold trips. They'll shake their head and say "if you got it you got it but I don't see how I can fold here" and they will pay it off every single time. Fish don't think on higher levels like you're describing. They cannot understand what another player is repping. They just don't understand the game well enough to do so.