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Good Punt or Bad Punt?

J

jonathan

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109.561 SEREY
5 votes

Comments

weird analysis. the turn raise is clearly the punt - equity when called matters and his shoves are way less frequent than him calling so being deprived of 15% or so equity when you have to raise/fold a flush draw (or 25 for a combo draw) is not really that big of a deal. pio still leans towards flatting nut flush draws for a variety of reasons but most of the lower ones should be at least low frequency raises. this one is a zero percenter. the river on the other hand is in theory a good bluff. you unblock hearts where Ax and Qx of hearts are not unlikely hands for him to have, and you basically have the nut low. maybe you find people looking you up here with hands like TT or A8hh but if they are they're playing very suboptimally and it makes the turn raise even worse than it already is.

11.567 SEREY
1 vote

Terrible hand to choose to bluff with. It's not even a good copy of T7o to bluff with because it leaves all T9s and 97s unblocked. Also blocks weak broadway draws with a Td in them that might want to check flop with intention of check-raising, then decide to barrel turn when hero checks back flop. What value hands really want to raise turn anyway? K9 I suppose, and one copy of Nines (if you even have nines here) and three copies of fives, basically. K5 is counterfeit so you can't raise it except as a bluff. Nines and strong kings were mostly betting flop. You don't need that many bluffs here. Low-card combo draws look nice, 76h, 87h, 86h also A8h A6h and A7h if you've got em. Beyond that just defend in position in a smallish pot and play some rivers. Don't over-complicate things.

0.000 SEREY
0 vote